Consequences of lying -- Obama vs Obama

It's still Obama vs Obama. The latest indication of the nature of the campaign is the public response to Mr. Romney's acceptance of the nomination. Much of the comment about that night has been about Clint Eastwood lecturing an empty chair. But these seem to be the important numbers. (Associated Press 8/31/2012)

2012 was only three-quarters of 2008. No one every accused Senator McCain of being a charismatic leader who was particularly good at drawing a crowd. The enthusiasm for Romney appears to be missing -- still. This is not new, of course. (Boynton, 5/24/2012)

If there is so little enthusiasm for Romney why is the race so close?

Beginning early in the Obama presidency the standard reaction of an overwhelming majority of Republicans was revulsion. They did not just oppose. They opposed strongly, which was the strongest language pollsters used to let them express their feelings. They have wanted to get 'those people' out for three years. (Rasmussen Reports, 2/8/2010)

Democrats have been equally supportive of Obama. The overwhelming majority supported Obama, but they were much more evenly distributed between support and strong support.

The advantage of strong feelings is increased likelihood of contributing and voting. The enthusiasm advantage of Republicans could make the difference in the outcome of an election that is likely to be decided by a very small margin.

Where does lying fit into these calculations? The Romney campaign is systematically lying about the state of the world, about Obama and about themselves. There is no question about that characterization (Rosen, 8/24/2012) How this comes about is equally clear. (Boynton, 8/30/2012)

Romney supporters find the lies about Obama fit their predispostions very nicely. Lies about the state of the world seems equally well received whether you are talking about the reaction of women's bodies to rape or the speed that one ran the marathon. But Republicans are unlikely to change their votes on the basis of the lies. They are already there -- anybody, even Romney, but Obama.

It is the reaction of Democrats that is most important. People are angry. Democrats are angry. Lying riles up supporters. So lying may be an enthusiasm boost for the Democrats. I am not aware that anyone has asked the public about their anger.

But the picture of the enthusiasm gap is easy.

The red line is the percentage of those who disapprove who strongly disapprove. The blue line is the percentage of those who approve who approve strongly. The first day is January 21, 2009, and the most recent day is September 1, 2012. Data for 1278 days are present. On forty-two days polls were not conducted. Most of the missing days were holidays: July 4, Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year. The daily polling result is from Rasmussen.

Notice how quickly strong disapproval rose from 53% to 80%. And how quickly strong approval fell from 73% to 60% and then 50%. The gap between the two would seem to be the gap in enthusiasm. If they come together the Republican lying should be part of the explanation.

© G. R. Boynton, September 2, 2012

 

 

 

 

References

Associated Press (8/31/2012) Nielsen: Estimated 30 million viewers watch Romney's acceptance speech, down from 2008 audience

Boynton, G. R. (8/30/2012) This is our challenge. What is wrong with this story?

Boynton, G. R. (5/24/2012) Obama vs Obama, the one person election

Rasmussen Reports (2/8/2010) Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Rosen, Jay (8.24/2012) "You're not entitled to your own faces" vs. That's your opinion. Kiss my ad.